Anticipated Return of $9B Mt. Gox-era Bitcoin May Spur Market Anxiety, Warns K33 Analyst

The potential return of over $9 billion worth of Mt. Gox-era Bitcoin in the coming weeks could unsettle the market and exert negative price pressure on Bitcoin, according to analysts at K33 Research.

Earlier this week, some creditors of the now-defunct Mt. Gox crypto exchange shared updates on their claims on Reddit. 

These updates included information about the amount of cryptocurrency and fiat owed to the creditors, as well as completed repayment dates.

Mt. Gox Creditors Could Receive Payments Next Month

The new updates suggest that creditors might start receiving their Bitcoin as soon as next month, as noted by K33 Research analysts Anders Helseth and Vetle Lunde in an April 23 market note.

The outstanding debt to Mt. Gox’s 127,000 creditors amounts to over $9.4 billion in Bitcoin, $72 million in Bitcoin Cash, and $445.8 million (69 billion Japanese yen).

Helseth and Lunde cautioned that the release of Bitcoin may not necessarily result in immediate selling pressure.

However, they emphasized that the substantial “overhang” of 142,000 BTC and 143,000 BCH could “spook the market.”

Mt. Gox’s 142,000 Bitcoin Payout

Trustee announces payout plan: 142,000k BTC, 143k BCH, & 69 Billion Yen to be distributed.

Repayment possible by Oct 31, 2024 pic.twitter.com/n0iOYYmZUk

— Kashif Raza (@simplykashif) April 22, 2024

Bitcoin is currently trading at just over $66,700, with recent volatility attributed to changing tensions in the Middle East and the Bitcoin halving that occurred on April 20.

The Mt. Gox creditors have been eagerly awaiting the return of their funds for over a decade since the exchange’s collapse in February 2014 due to a series of undetected hacks.

In January, the Mt. Gox trustee initiated contact with creditors to verify their identities and the crypto exchange accounts that would be used for repaying the owed Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash.

Some creditors had already begun receiving Japanese yen repayments by December of last year, and further fiat transfers were reported in March, according to the K33 report.

While the final repayment deadline for base repayments, early lump-sum repayments, and intermediate repayments is currently set for October 31, 2024, it remains subject to potential changes.

Bitcoin Surges After Halving

While Bitcoin did not immediately react to the much-anticipated halving event, the leading cryptocurrency has since registered some gains. 

While some analysts, including JPMorgan, have cautioned about a potential further price slide following this quadrennial event, the overall consensus remains bullish in the long term.

Just recently, Bitwise said that while the month immediately following the halving typically sees a modest drop in price, the subsequent year often witnesses exponential gains. 

The asset manager noted that following the 2012 halving, Bitcoin experienced a meager 9% increase in the month post-halving, only to skyrocket by a staggering 8,839% over the following year. 

Similar patterns were observed after the 2016 and 2020 halvings, with Bitcoin’s price surging significantly in the year following each event.

Likewise, Crypto.com CEO Kris Marszalek has recently said that Bitcoin may experience some selling pressure in the lead-up to the highly anticipated halving event, but the long-term outlook remains bullish. 

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